One of the most exciting things about betting on basketball is there are an endless number of ways you can build a profitable betting system. While in theory, a perfect system exists to identify value, pick winners, and make money, we highly doubt it’s been discovered yet. This means that the road is open for you to use your expertise to try and find that optimal strategy to make some serious cash. Because there are so many different ways to approach identifying value and picking winning bets, it can be challenging to offer strategy tips that work across the board. It’s very possible that some of these tips work extremely well with your systems or that they aren’t a good fit.
A lot of bettors that are new to sports betting and basketball betting aren’t sure how their mind should be working. They need to see examples of how a seasoned sports bettor looks at games and tries to find value and make picks. This is also beneficial for people that have been betting for a while. Sometimes you need a fresh way of looking at things or new ideas to spark new trains of thought. For that reason, we suggest checking how basketball betting works. Alternatively, keep reading to learn more about basketball betting systems.
Looking for Value
Being a successful basketball bettor is NOT about mainly about picking winners. It’s a bit shocking how many seasoned bettors still do not understand this concept. You can have a winning record of bets and still be losing money. The secret to success in betting basketball is finding value and maximizing your bets when the value is the highest.
As this may be a lot for you to unpack, we’re going to walk you through it step by step. The first thing you need to realize is that a person’s win/loss record with their betting picks does NOT tell you whether or not that person is making money betting on basketball. The sportsbook is going to aim to offer the exact amount they think that a bet is “worth” minus the small percentage for their juice or house rake. Having a basketball betting system
As we all know though from reading the moneyline guide referenced above, the lines move based on how the betting public bets or can sometimes be released as lines that we feel are different than what is actually going to happen. When we find a bet that is paying out MORE than we think it should, this is what we call value. For example, let’s say the Dallas Mavericks are a +200 underdog in a game meaning they are expected to lose 2 out of every 3 times they play this game. This is an implied probability of 33.33%. This just means that they should win this game about 33.33% of the time.
What is Value?
Let’s say we think that is wrong though. Let’s say we think that they stand about a 40% chance of winning this game. Converting that implied probability to betting odds we see that we think we should be only getting paid at +150 for this bet. This means that if we bet $100, we think that the sportsbook pays us $150 on a correct bet. BUT!!! The sportsbook is actually willing to pay us $200 on this bet if we are correct. That’s $50 in free money. This is called value. Keep in mind that every basketball betting system needs to offer value.
Best Basketball Betting Systems
As we all know, the NBA is the most popular basketball tournament in the world. For that reason, we will mention the best basketball betting systems concerning the NBA.
High Totals System
There aren’t many betting strategies that are simpler than this one. The High Totals System invented by Allen Moody. He was professional sports-bettor and author of the betting book Becoming a Winning Gambler and Sports Betting Basics. However, before reading about this basketball betting system, make sure you learn more about Totals Betting.
Allen Moody found that bookmakers often underestimate points totals for NBA non-conference games, so Allen Moody began taking the total points over on every NBA game with an over/under of 220 total points. It’s a basic strategy, however it paid off big-time, with Moody being correct 63.5% of the time for all NBA games meeting that criteria from season 2004-05 to 2008-09.
NBA games such as those were rare 10 years ago, however they are more common now as teams play at a greater pace and hit many more 3-pointers. Back in 2004-05, teams scored at an average of 97.2 ppg. That average climbed to 100.0 ppg in 2008-09, and went even higher to 105.6 ppg during the 2016-17 season. Bookmakers have become clued-in to this total points trend, however there is certainly value remaining to be found in taking the total points over in games with substantially high total-point predictions.
The Bounce Back System
On the counter to the above Blowout System, teams coming off poor offensive games have a impressive record for bouncing back in their next home game. The number crunchers at Bet Labs studied 250 games where home teams were coming off a poor offensive game and saw that their next games went over the projected total points total around 62% of the time. When doing your NBA research, look for plus .500 teams that made under 40% from the field in their previous game and then bet the total points over on their next home game.
The Martingale System
It’s just not possible to win every bet you make (unless you have Grays Sports Almanac), but you can still win over the long term through a system like the Martingale System. This strategy requires you to double your wagers on a selected team’s game totals until they win (sounds crazy we know). Let’s say the LA Lakers are averaging 108.0 ppg and have scored 110.0+ points in their last 5 games. After studying that night’s match-ups, you bet $30 on the Lakers going over 110.0 points in their game against the Thunder. If the Lakers succeed, you win your wager and make a small profit.
However, if they fail, the Martingale System requires you to take a very deep breath and double your wager to $60 that the Lakers will go over 110 points in their next game against the Suns. If the Warriors score 110 points plus, you will have covered your previous loss and made some extra cash. If they fail, the Martingale System requires you to double your previous bet to $120 and continue to make the same wager until your bet gets over the line and your luck changes.
The keys to the Martingale System are a giant set of balls, patience, a hefty bankroll, and a knowledge of statistical trends. At a certain point, you’ll need to give up if your losses become too much, but if you’ve studied sufficiently, your patience should be paid back. The Martingale System, requires you to consider a team’s scoring average, player match-ups, team injuries, and the pace of play for each team. These factors will go a long way towards predicting the final score.
The D’alembert System
The D’Alembert basketball betting system is similar to the Martingale System. But, it has a lot less financial risk due to its more conservative nature. When using the D’Alembert betting strategy, you select a bet amount and increase it by the same amount should you lose, and decrease it by the same amount should you win.
For example, if you make your bet amount $20. Using this amount as your starting point, you wager $20 on the outcome of an NBA game. Should your wager lose, you bet $20 the following night on the outcome of another game. Should you lose again, you bet $40 on the following game. If you win that game, then you go back to a $20 bet on the next game, and so forth.
The D’Alembert System is less profitable than the Martingale System, however it appeals to bettors with lesser bankrolls who are more void of risk.
The Zig-Zag System
The Zig-Zag system can be used for many sports. It is most often used when betting on playoff games in sports that have them. The Zig-Zag system works under the assumption that bookmakers and novice bettors overreact to recent game outcomes and that playoff teams will respond to losses with extra motivation. Whichever team lost the last game is the team that you then wager ATS. But, on its own, this system only wins 50.9% of the time. To increase chances of winning, the bettor needs to add more filters…
The system works better when the team recovering from a loss is playing at home. This is even better if the previous loss occurred on their home court. This raises the odds to around 53%, which is enough to be worthwhile and profitable. To improve chances, add more filters to find home teams that lost their previous game by 3+ points. Additionally, check who won at least 60% of their games through the regular season.
Should this scenario present, the odds of winning ATS are largely dependent on the size of the point spread. If the spread is between -3 and -4.5, the bounce-back home team beats the spread at over 58%. Spreads between -5 and -5.5 aren’t profitable overall. They cover at a rate of just 51%. However spreads of -6 plus win between 62% to almost 80% of the time, and that’s damn impressive.
The basketball betting systems covered here are to gambling what bounce passes and free throws are to a basketball team. Most of the people wagering on NBA are doing so for fun. However, simply picking winners in NBA is a fools game. This is because even if you are correct, you’ll likely not make any money in the long run. If you apply our NBA betting systems, you will create a strong knowledge base. You can use the knowledge to learn how to handicap NBA basketball and get better on the punt.
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